汽车工业产值及经济指标

The automotive industry typically performs well when consumer confidence is high and when interest rates are low. 在过去的两年里，我决定测试这个想法, 因为在这段时间, 我们经历了利率的大幅上升. 这样做, I tracked total market capitalization for the top five auto manufacturers as a proxy for automotive industry performance, 以及联邦基金利率, 哪些因素会对利率产生广泛影响, 从一月一日起, 2022年和1月1日, 2024.  

正如预测的那样, 基于这些有限的数据, it appears that auto industry value has declined as interest rates have risen. The chart below shows that this correlation does not seem to continue as interest rates become more stable in 2023. This seems to indicate that investors might react to large changes in interest rates, 但增幅更温和, coupled with signs from the Fed that interest rate hikes are starting to slow, might not impact auto manufacturers’ stock prices as heavily. 值得注意的是, 虽然, that the total market cap for auto manufacturers begins to recover in 2023, but not to 2022 levels—as interest rates remain at historically high levels throughout 2023.

There appears to be some correlation between auto industry value and U.S. 消费者信心指数(由美国消费者信心指数衡量).S. 消费者信心指数), but only in the first half of 2022 as shown in the chart below:

然而, the Consumer Sentiment Index has averaged 85 between 1952 and 2024. 因此, consumer confidence was below average over the past two years while auto manufacturer market cap was generally deflated. 在这种情况下, the data still seems to support the correlation between auto industry performance and consumer confidence.  

因为消费者更直接受到汽车经销商的影响, 而不是汽车制造商, 对交易商来说，追踪市值也是有意义的. 如下所示, the market cap for auto dealers (measured by the top six public auto dealers) has generally fluctuated in line with car manufacturers over the last two years. 

The limited data presented in the charts above appears to support the idea that values of auto dealers and manufacturers are impacted by changes in interest rates (negative correlation) and consumer confidence (positive correlation). 然而, it is important to note that many other macro- and micro-economic factors impact these metrics. 除了, a change in one metric could take time to impact another metric; there is likely a lag in the correlations over time. 因此, while it is interesting to observe these potential correlations over the last two years, they should not be viewed as a rule to estimate future changes.

Schneider Downs has significant experience in preparing business valuations of car dealerships and a range of private businesses for various purposes including gift/estate 税es, 买卖目的和财务报告. 请联系Steve Thimons (412-697-5281; (电子邮件保护))或托马斯·D. 普拉特(412-697-5615; (电子邮件保护))查阅更多有关的资料 施耐德唐斯的企业估值bet9平台游戏.

数据来源:

• Macrotrends
• 公司市值
• 雅虎Finanace 
• 弗雷德，美联储经济数据
• YCharts

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